Day 3: Five Easy steps to plan for the future
Thursday, July 30, 2009 at 11:37AM Day 3: Yesterday was a pretty successful day. I wrote a blog post (read below foolio!), tumbled a few things, and sent out 12 tweets. Once again, I failed to synthesize my top 5 favorite stories of the day, but I have got to be honest with you I am concerned about being redundant. I mean, in all likelihood the "top 5" stories of the day in my mind will be something I tweet about right? So won't this be boring? I am not interested in being boring. In fact, it is why I hate people that tweet "stillllll waiting for the bus" and other massively uninteresting tidbits. Or maybe this is just an excuse? Either way, roughly 80% successful day (I did tweet 2 beyond my quota).
Twitter followers: 100 (+6)
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So I was reading this month's issue of Wired on my couch last night and I came across a really great article: "Your Future in 5 Easy Steps".
Now, I was considering going through and outlining the 5 steps in this post but honestly it would be insanely long. Sooo what I am going to do is instead provide the instructions and in my next 5 posts (who would have guessed) walk through them that way.
Step 1: List Driving Forces
What variables, trends, and events will affect your mission? The first step is simply to list them. Next, divide them into uncertainties (for instance, economic, political, and social conditions) and relative certainties (such as global population growth and climate change). Finally, rank the items according to their importance, from most to least significant. The result: a catalog of factors that will determine the future of the area in question.
Step 2: Make a Scenario Grid
Now it’s time to map out possible futures. The two most important uncertainties — from the top of your list—form the axes of a grid, with each quadrant representing a potential future. Some may be more likely than others — and some might seem downright improbable — but they all depict the interplay of key forces. Thus, they’re within the range of possibility and deserve your attention.
Step 3: Imagine Possible Futures
Sketched as a simple grid, these four possible futures are so abstract that it would be hard to recognize them if they emerged. Make the scenarios more concrete by fleshing them out into imaginary, but plausible, news stories that are emblematic of the forces at play.
Step 4: Brainstorm Implications and Actions
Now it’s time to develop strategies for coping with the four futures you’ve imagined. Start by listing the implications of each scenario. Then come up with actions that would enable you to prosper under the new conditions. Some actions would apply to almost any scenario. These should form the basis of your plan, since they help you prepare for a range of possibilities. Bolster core actions with those related to the future you deem most likely.
Step 5: List Driving Forces
Track Indicators The main value of scenarios is that they sensitize you to the way the future is unfolding. Over time, the world is likely to gravitate toward one of your four quadrants. The trick is to recognize the shift in progress.
As you monitor the news, look for signals that a particular possibility is becoming a concrete reality. Keep a file of news relevant to your scenarios, jotting down a quick note, along with the date, whenever you come across a significant story.
Evaluate these developments on a quarterly basis so you can track the trends. Adjust your action strategy to anticipate the future as it emerges.
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