Top 10 trends of 2010? I hope not.
Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:31AM So today Techcrunch covered the Churchill Club’s 11th Annual Top Ten Tech Trends
The basic idea was that a panel of experts would posit what they thought the web trends would be over the next year, and then the crowd would vote. Super exciting stuff. Also, the crowd got to pick a few of the trends for the panel to discuss. Anyway, here are the 10 -- and my thoughts on them.
1. The Millennials Are Here. Everything is changing. Rapidly! — Joe Schoendorf
, Partner, Accel Partners | The audience mostly agreed on this trend.
I mean, ok? This is a startling insight? For those of you who don't know, "millenials" are basically everyone from the age of 18-27, with the real point of the grouping being that we (I am one) have never really lived w/o the existence of a digital world. Anyway, this being included as the number one trend sets the bar very low in my opinion. It is basically like pointing out that butter is delicious or that bow ties are hilarious and awesome at the same time. "People who grew up with the internet are changing things? Holy shit."
2. Advanced batteries will be the most popular alternative energy investment in ‘09 and’10. But the medium term will provide the best returns — Crowd Idea | The crowd was evenly mixed on this trend.
I have to be honest. This is not something I am interested in. Although, I guess to the point that this is a trend in the future that is awesome -- who wouldn't want advanced batteries?? Would this mean I would stop having to switch the Wii batteries for my blu-ray remote? I hope so.
3. The unstructured data deluge creates the next great information leaders — Ann Winblad
, Partner, Hummer Winblad Venture Partners | The crowd mostly agreed with this trend.
As we build Cerebreo out, I can't help but think this should be the #1 trend. The fact of the matter is that when you identify that people are growing ever more connected to the web (see #1) and that technology needs to address a fragmentation of information, then this makes complete sense. I don't want to give anything away, but this is basically the premise of Cerebreo.
4. Wireless broadband be will one of the only IT sectors to see increased funding this year — Crowd Idea | The crowd almost entirely disagreed with this trend.
This certainly makes sense, but I cannot imagine something less sexy. The fact of the matter is that broadband regulation is looming (woohoo! government!) and advances in broadband networks are likely going to come from the major players we already have. I guess this answer means that I disagree with this, but the outcome is what I am more concerned about and the funding question has little impact on the outcome (feel free to disagree).
5. “Maintech” not “Cleantech” — Increasing carbon efficiency of global GDP — Vinod Khosla
, Founder, Khosla Ventures | Pretty much everyone agreed with this trend.
Carbon is sexy these days. And not sexy like #2 pencils or moon rocks. Sexy like caps and trades and government involvement. I am curious how/when we can measure a global GDP that is interesting or significant, but I am going to disagree that this is an important point. Isn't the premise of this trend basically that cleantech will replace "green-awesomeness" in people throwing money at products? If so, spectacular. I am fully in -- I just love styrofoam and plastic diapers myself.
6. Power and efficiency management services will see a flowering of investment and innovation — Crowd Idea | The crowd mostly agreed with this trend.
See #5.
7. The triumph of the distributed web — Steve Jurvetson
, Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson | The audience was about half and half on trend.
See #3.
8. Healthcare administration will see the best growth in B2B software in ‘09 and ‘10 – Crowd Idea
Someone wake me up. How in the fucking world is this a new trend? Healthcare will grow? Is this also a convention of people who were frozen during 2008?
9. Consumption of digital goods on mobile devices is THE growth story of the coming decade — Ram Shriram
, Managing Partner, Sherpalo Ventures, LLC | The audience mostly agreed with this trend.
Not sure I buy this. Micro-transactions seem to be far more relevant in my opinion. I guess they are likely indistinguishable, but focusing solely on mobile diminishes the market cap of micro-transactions -- and that is something that makes little sense to me. That said, if they substitute "micro-transactions" with "in mobile devices" then I wholeheartedly agreed.
10. Electronic displays will prove the hottest investment in hardware this year and the next — Crowd Idea | The audience almost completely disagreed with this trend.
Like Netbooks? Or touch tablets? I guess. Although if you lump the G1 and iPhone into this category then this is also completely fucking obvious. That said, I don't see how this is particularly valuable insight--monetarily speaking--if you are simply talking about touch/display interface advancement.
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